The Turning Point in Sinner vs. Medvedev Rivalry

Jannik Sinner’s meteoric rise over the last 15 months has firmly established him as one of the best players in the world, creating a clear separation from the rest of the tour. Among those impacted most by this ascension is Daniil Medvedev.

From 0-6 to Leading 8-7

Until March 2023, Daniil Medvedev held a dominant 6-0 lead over Jannik Sinner. However, the tides shifted dramatically as Sinner not only broke the streak but went on to win eight of their last nine encounters. Sinner now leads the head-to-head 8-7—a remarkable turnaround in just over a year.

This unprecedented reversal brings to mind the Federer vs. Hewitt rivalry, where Roger Federer trailed 2-7 before ending the 2004 season ahead at 8-7.

The Key Matches That Changed the Dynamics

Initially, Sinner’s victories were hard-fought battles, including triumphs in Beijing, Vienna, the ATP Finals, and the Australian Open. Yet, as time went on, Sinner began to dominate completely—except for a brief hiccup at Wimbledon.

Medvedev, known for his prowess on hard courts, has particularly struggled on his favored surface against Sinner. The Italian’s improvements in aggression and versatility have left Medvedev without answers.

The Six Kings Slam: A Rivalry Beyond Official Stats

Exhibition matches don’t count towards the official head-to-head, but the Six Kings Slam in Riyadh, October 2024, offered a unique glimpse into this evolving rivalry. With substantial prize money on the line, both players treated the match with seriousness.

Sinner’s aggressive gameplay overwhelmed Medvedev, leaving him visibly shaken. After the match, Medvedev admitted:

“I’ve never played against someone who played like Jannik Sinner today. It was a tough feeling on the court because I was feeling good, I was fighting well, and physically I felt good. My tennis wasn’t that bad, and I lost easily, which I don’t remember the last time this happened.”

Medvedev’s Struggles and the Road Ahead

Daniil Medvedev, despite his struggles with Sinner, remains highly competitive. In 2024, he reached a Grand Slam final, a semifinal, and a quarterfinal—all losses to eventual winners. However, his inability to adapt against Sinner highlights a critical challenge.

Why Sinner Has the Edge

Sinner’s game has evolved significantly in the past year. His power, precision, and adaptability now outshine Medvedev in nearly every aspect. For Medvedev to reclaim dominance in this rivalry, he will need to innovate and make significant changes to his playing style in 2025.

As things stand, Medvedev’s best surface now belongs to a new master—Jannik Sinner.