The 12 group matches at the WTA Finals Riyadh, presented by PIF, are now behind us. Only three knockout meetings remain: two frenzied semifinals on Friday and the final on Saturday. The final four features three players in fantastic form:

• World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, who has won 22 of her last 24 matches
• Zheng Qinwen, who is 30-5 since Wimbledon
• Coco Gauff, riding an 11-2 streak

The outlier? Barbora Krejcikova, who has played only 32 matches this year—far fewer than the other three, who have averaged 56 victories.

As the last singles match began Thursday night, there were still three potential semifinal matchups in play. After Krejcikova’s 7-5, 6-4 victory over Gauff, the grid was set. Here’s a closer look at the matchups and who has the edge.

Semifinal 1: Zheng Qinwen (No. 7) vs. Barbora Krejcikova (No. 8)

Head-to-head: 1-0, Zheng (a 2-6, 6-2, 6-4 winner in the Zhengzhou final)

The Case for Zheng

• Zheng is absolutely on fire right now. After a loss to Sabalenka in her opening match, she bounced back impressively, finishing off both Elena Rybakina and Jasmine Paolini with dominant 6-1 final set scores. Zheng has shown immense serving prowess with a tournament-high 12 aces against Paolini, and a stunning ace-to-double fault ratio of +15. Her confidence has surged in recent months, especially after winning the Tokyo title and reaching the semifinals in Beijing and Wuhan.

At 22, Zheng is the youngest player to make the semifinals in her WTA Finals debut since Petra Kvitova in 2011. It’s clear she’s in her prime and ready for more.

The Case for Krejcikova

Krejcikova has been a bit of an anomaly at this year’s Finals. She didn’t crack the Top 8 in the Race to the Finals, but earned her spot via a qualifying rule that grants a Grand Slam champion ranked within the Top 20 a shot. Her run here has been impressive. Despite an early loss to Iga Świątek, Krejcikova turned it around by defeating Jessica Pegula and then overcoming Gauff in a high-stakes win to advance to the semifinals.

Krejcikova made history by becoming the first player ranked outside the Top 10 to win two matches at the Finals since Elena Dementieva in 2000. If she continues this form, she could be a dark horse for the title.

Semifinal 2: Aryna Sabalenka (No. 1) vs. Coco Gauff (No. 3)

Head-to-head: 4-4

The Case for Sabalenka

Sabalenka has had a stellar year, clinching the No. 1 ranking and securing major titles at the US Open, Cincinnati, and Wuhan. Despite a rare setback in her final group match against Rybakina, where she lost 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, Sabalenka’s growth as a player is evident. Her ability to win in big moments, particularly against Top 10 players, has made her one of the most consistent players on tour. Sabalenka is the first player to reach back-to-back semifinals at the WTA Finals as the World No. 1 since Serena Williams in 2013-2014.

Her power game, aggressive returns, and mental toughness put her in the perfect position to contend for the title.

The Case for Gauff

Gauff, though still only 20, has already had a breakout year. She recently captured a career-high 52 wins, including a huge victory over Świątek in their group match, where she broke her 1-12 losing record against the Polish star. Gauff’s growth has been remarkable—her ability to perform in high-pressure situations, combined with her excellent movement and mental resilience, make her a serious contender. Even in her loss to Krejcikova, Gauff displayed incredible grit, fighting for every point despite already having qualified for the semifinals.

With her newfound confidence and a strong finish to the season, Gauff has shown she’s ready for the biggest stage.

Conclusion: Who Will Be Crowned Champion?

• Zheng Qinwen has the momentum, serving well and hitting her stride. If she continues her exceptional form, she could well take the title in her first WTA Finals appearance.
• Krejcikova has defied the odds before and could very well do it again. With her calm under pressure, she is a real threat.
• Sabalenka, despite her recent loss, is still the player to beat. Her consistency and power give her the edge in any matchup.
• Gauff has been a revelation this season and, with her fighting spirit, she might just surprise everyone by going all the way.

It’s going to be an exciting conclusion to the 2024 WTA Finals, and the title could go to any of these four incredible players!